Champions League Last 16: Bah humbug! Get Christmas out the way, I want February
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A superb draw has pitted some of Europe's biggest names and left intrigue and mystery to the Champions League last 16 stage. In fact, so good was the draw, that Eurosport's Dave Farrar has even got over the absence of Gerhard Aigner from proceedings...
I've had the dubious pleasure of commentating on the Champions League draw for the last ten seasons or so, and, until Friday, it had got less and less interesting by the year.
The main reason for this, admittedly, has been the absence of the former UEFA General Secretary Gerhard Aigner (pictured), who approached each of these occasions as if it were an X Factor audition for the over 60s. He'd arrive on stage in UEFA blazer and slacks, sweep back his hair, and treat each scripted joke as if it were pure comedy gold.
There was always a twinkling comment about "the balls", and the feeling that he spent long lonely hours in his garret room in Geneva, dreaming of the bright lights and the greasepaint. It's not that his replacement as Master of Ceremonies, David Taylor, is dull: just that he's a bit too professional and businesslike. Aigner always struck me as a great romantic, too, and he will have been thrilled by the pairings that appeared last week. We can all look ahead to February, and already know that choosing which game to watch on a given night will be purgatory. It's how it should be, and a welcome relief from the rather predictable last 16s that we've had in recent years.
As punters, of course, we have to try and make sense of it from a betting perspective, and that's as difficult as it ever was. The outright market is so hard to call from this far out, because it's massively dependent on form and injuries, and we can only guess in what state the protagonists will be in two months time.
As far as the showcase matches go, my initial feelings are that Manchester United will beat Inter over two legs, Juventus will give Chelsea a real test, Real Madrid and Liverpool is a 50-50 game, and Roma will put Arsenal out.
In terms of the "to qualify" prices, Roma look real value to me at 2.14, as they have got themselves together after a poor start, and even though they're weaker than they were in the last two seasons, they're desperate to give themselves a chance of playing in a Champions League final at the Olimpico, and all of their focus will be on the two matches against an Arsenal side that we know will be without their best player, Cesc Fabregas.
The 1.59 about Ferguson beating Mourinho is probably about right and is a leave alone for now, while it's best waiting to see how Juve's injury list looks in February, before taking the plunge at 2.56 on them to beat Chelsea. If they have another five of their first teamers back, then Ranieri's team might just be the bet of the round.
Well though Liverpool have played in this competition in the last few seasons, I have a feeling that Juande Ramos will have Real Madrid in good order by the time of this tie, and rather like Roma, their sole focus will be on the Champions League and that makes them an attractive proposition at 2.14.
Barcelona will beat Lyon, although the French champions have the ability to make a game of it, and I can't see these matches being anything other than high scoring, so the over 2.5 goals markets will make interesting reading nearer the time. Bayern Munich should join Barca in the quarter finals, although I won't be backing them at a short price as they're too inconsistent to support with any confidence. In the other two ties, I really don't understand why the two Spanish teams are such short priced favourites: Atletico and Villareal are both slightly superior to Porto and Panathinaikos, but I'm convinced that at least one of the La Liga sides will go out to supposedly inferior opposition. Panathinaikos were good enough to win at Inter, and to win their group, and yet you can back them to qualify at 2.8, and we know that Porto will be rock solid and hard to beat, and 2.3 is an attractive price.
The most important thing is that the draw doesn't feel like a carve up: big teams will go out, a couple of smaller ones will sneak through, and we could even have a surprise finalist in a year when the equilibrium of European football has been restored a little: in terms of the outright market, Barcelona are absolutely worthy favourites, and if they play like they have been doing, 4.5 will look a huge price come April.
Juventus also look massive at 25.0 given the imminent return of half a team of internationals to their squad, and given how well disciplined they are, and how much spirit they've shown, Panathinaikos should not be trading at 130.0. They could be a bit of back-to-lay value at that price.
Compliments of the season to you all, but forgive me for already having one eye on February. Let's hope that we all have a happy, and lucky, 2009.
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Betfair.com <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>A superb draw has pitted some of Europe's biggest names and left intrigue and mystery to the Champions League last 16 stage. In fact, so good was the draw, that Eurosport's Dave Farrar has even got over the absence of Gerhard Aigner from proceedings...
I've had the dubious pleasure of commentating on the Champions League draw for the last ten seasons or so, and, until Friday, it had got less and less interesting by the year.
The main reason for this, admittedly, has been the absence of the former UEFA General Secretary Gerhard Aigner (pictured), who approached each of these occasions as if it were an X Factor audition for the over 60s. He'd arrive on stage in UEFA blazer and slacks, sweep back his hair, and treat each scripted joke as if it were pure comedy gold.
There was always a twinkling comment about "the balls", and the feeling that he spent long lonely hours in his garret room in Geneva, dreaming of the bright lights and the greasepaint. It's not that his replacement as Master of Ceremonies, David Taylor, is dull: just that he's a bit too professional and businesslike. Aigner always struck me as a great romantic, too, and he will have been thrilled by the pairings that appeared last week. We can all look ahead to February, and already know that choosing which game to watch on a given night will be purgatory. It's how it should be, and a welcome relief from the rather predictable last 16s that we've had in recent years.
As punters, of course, we have to try and make sense of it from a betting perspective, and that's as difficult as it ever was. The outright market is so hard to call from this far out, because it's massively dependent on form and injuries, and we can only guess in what state the protagonists will be in two months time.
As far as the showcase matches go, my initial feelings are that Manchester United will beat Inter over two legs, Juventus will give Chelsea a real test, Real Madrid and Liverpool is a 50-50 game, and Roma will put Arsenal out.
In terms of the "to qualify" prices, Roma look real value to me at 2.14, as they have got themselves together after a poor start, and even though they're weaker than they were in the last two seasons, they're desperate to give themselves a chance of playing in a Champions League final at the Olimpico, and all of their focus will be on the two matches against an Arsenal side that we know will be without their best player, Cesc Fabregas.
The 1.59 about Ferguson beating Mourinho is probably about right and is a leave alone for now, while it's best waiting to see how Juve's injury list looks in February, before taking the plunge at 2.56 on them to beat Chelsea. If they have another five of their first teamers back, then Ranieri's team might just be the bet of the round.
Well though Liverpool have played in this competition in the last few seasons, I have a feeling that Juande Ramos will have Real Madrid in good order by the time of this tie, and rather like Roma, their sole focus will be on the Champions League and that makes them an attractive proposition at 2.14.
Barcelona will beat Lyon, although the French champions have the ability to make a game of it, and I can't see these matches being anything other than high scoring, so the over 2.5 goals markets will make interesting reading nearer the time. Bayern Munich should join Barca in the quarter finals, although I won't be backing them at a short price as they're too inconsistent to support with any confidence. In the other two ties, I really don't understand why the two Spanish teams are such short priced favourites: Atletico and Villareal are both slightly superior to Porto and Panathinaikos, but I'm convinced that at least one of the La Liga sides will go out to supposedly inferior opposition. Panathinaikos were good enough to win at Inter, and to win their group, and yet you can back them to qualify at 2.8, and we know that Porto will be rock solid and hard to beat, and 2.3 is an attractive price.
The most important thing is that the draw doesn't feel like a carve up: big teams will go out, a couple of smaller ones will sneak through, and we could even have a surprise finalist in a year when the equilibrium of European football has been restored a little: in terms of the outright market, Barcelona are absolutely worthy favourites, and if they play like they have been doing, 4.5 will look a huge price come April.
Juventus also look massive at 25.0 given the imminent return of half a team of internationals to their squad, and given how well disciplined they are, and how much spirit they've shown, Panathinaikos should not be trading at 130.0. They could be a bit of back-to-lay value at that price.
Compliments of the season to you all, but forgive me for already having one eye on February. Let's hope that we all have a happy, and lucky, 2009.
Got a question about Betfair? Try our Betfair Education Department or post your question here.
As for Canadians (and other currently accepted players):
Account Help is available 24/7.
By Email: info@betfair.com ('Canada' in the Subject Line)
By Phone: 1-866-381-7119 (Free from Canadian landlines)
Click here to see a demo of How Betfair Works (Our standard FREE $25 Bet Code for Canadians is in there)
Click here to find out about Canadian Payment Methods
More Betting Tips on the Betfair Canada Blog
((Betfair does not currently allow US Citizens to play on Betfair.com))
